News: Price Fluctuations and Reasons Why.
17th September 2026 (last updated: 17th September 2026)
Hello THOC members,
If you’ve been keeping an eye on the oil price over the last couple of weeks, you’ll have noticed a fairly significant move upwards.
Here’s how the THOC price has changed:
Date THOC price
1 September 92.99ppl
Last Friday 100.10ppl
Yesterday 113.50ppl
Today 110.17ppl
So, whilst today’s price is 3.33ppl lower than yesterday, we’re still around 17ppl higher than we were at the start of September.
So, what’s going on?
The biggest factor is the continuing conflict between the United States and Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important to the oil market. Before the current conflict, roughly one-fifth of global petroleum supplies passed through the Strait, making any disruption there a major concern for the world's oil supply chain.
The conflict has disrupted oil flows and increased the amount of risk being priced into crude oil. The US Energy Information Administration has highlighted how disruption through the Strait has contributed to higher and considerably more volatile crude prices this year.
That is why we've seen crude oil move sharply higher whenever tensions escalate.
And we've seen exactly that happen again in September.
Brent crude moved above $100 a barrel last week as fighting intensified, with markets increasingly concerned about how much oil can move safely through the region.
What about Trump and November?
This is perhaps the most interesting part of the current situation for oil buyers.
There has been plenty of speculation that the conflict could be resolved before the US midterm elections in November, which could remove some of the risk premium currently built into oil prices.
However, President Trump has recently given a rather different indication.
On 9 September, Trump said oil prices were unlikely to fall significantly until after the November midterm elections, saying that prices would then fall rapidly.
He subsequently said the war could end around or after the November elections, while on Wednesday he said he hoped the conflict was approaching its end and claimed there had been direct contact with Iran. Iran has not confirmed that direct negotiations have resumed, and Iranian officials have continued to attach conditions to any talks.
In other words, there isn't currently a clear timetable for a resolution.
And that matters to anyone who needs heating oil over the coming months.